Gas prices, Trump’s tariffs and Congress’s record — Is America Better Yet?

By Roberto Zapatero
Independent Forensic Investigative Journalist, Is America Better Yet?
September 2, 2026 | Reported explainer | Living Record

If you buy 15 gallons of regular gasoline, the national average price on September 2 puts that purchase near $61.80. The same amount at the average a year before cost about $47.80. That is roughly $14 more each time. Four such purchases in a month would add about $56. These are illustrations, not estimates of every household’s fuel use. AAA lists the current average at $4.12 a gallon, compared with $3.19 a year ago. 1

I understand the frustration, and I share it. A promise of lower prices later does little for a bill you have to pay today.

That frustration reaches across party lines. An August 28 to 31 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 71% of adults disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of their cost of living. Among Republicans, 40% disapproved and 56% approved. Those results show substantial dissatisfaction within his party, alongside continued majority support on that question. 2

November’s federal elections are for Congress. As USAGov explains, all 435 House seats and a staggered third of Senate seats are contested in midterm elections. The presidency is not up for election this November. The relevant congressional record includes lawmakers’ votes on Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran. 3

Tariff costs have already reached consumers. An August study by researchers Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, found that the 2025 tariffs raised prices for imported goods and goods made in the United States. Direct effects appeared quickly as import prices rose. Other effects, including higher costs for imported parts and less competition for domestic producers, took nine to twelve months to move through supply chains. 5

A separate study by Sinem Hacıoğlu Hoke and Leo Feler, published by the Federal Reserve, found higher prices, a disproportionate burden on households with lower incomes and reduced purchases of nonessential goods. These are the researchers’ findings about tariffs already imposed, with costs measured in household transactions. They are not official Federal Reserve policy positions. 6

Trump’s role in choosing the measures is documented by his administration. On July 23, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced tariffs on 60 economies at his direction. It cited failures to prohibit or enforce bans on imports made with forced labor. The agency acted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, following public hearings and comments. 4

The legal distinctions matter. On February 20, the Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize Trump to impose tariffs. That ruling concerned that statute; the July action relied on a different trade law. The economic studies of the 2025 tariffs should not be read as a calculation of the cost of every tariff currently in force. 4 5 6 7

Congressional leaders also made choices. ABC News reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., tried to block House consideration of tariff challenges. His effort failed after three Republicans joined Democrats in opposing it. Johnson defended leaving Trump room to negotiate trade agreements and pointed to the then-pending Supreme Court case. 8

On February 11, the House voted 219 to 211 to end the emergency declaration behind the Canada tariffs. Six Republicans joined nearly all Democrats: Don Bacon, Brian Fitzpatrick, Dan Newhouse, Jeff Hurd, Thomas Massie and Kevin Kiley. Jared Golden, D-Maine, voted against it. The measure’s passage in one chamber did not itself repeal the tariffs. This was a recorded challenge to presidential policy, opposed by most House Republicans and supported by a small group within their party. 8

Trump also raised expectations of direct payments. In February 2025, he said he was considering returning 20% of savings from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to Americans. The widely discussed $5,000 figure came from businessman James Fishback’s proposal, Reuters reported. Trump’s wording was more explicit on November 9, when he promised a tariff dividend of at least $2,000 a person, excluding people with high incomes, as FactCheck.org documented. 22 23

The promised $2,000 tariff payment still lacked an approved program or a payment date in an August 20 status report. FinanceBuzz reported that eligibility rules had not been established either. FactCheck.org explained that such payments require congressional authorization. The distinction between an announcement and an authorized payment matters to anyone hoping to use that money for current bills. 23 24

A separate payment did reach recipients. The Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service confirmed that eligible military members received a $1,776 Warrior Dividend in December 2025, funded from money Congress had appropriated for military housing. That payment was for a defined military population. It was not the proposed tariff or DOGE dividend for the broader public. 25

The war has its own record of decisions and expectations. In his March 2 notification to Congress, Trump said he had ordered the February 28 strikes on Iran. He invoked his constitutional authority as commander in chief and described protecting Americans, allies and maritime commerce as his purposes. The letter did not identify a specific congressional authorization for the campaign. 9

That same day, Trump said publicly that “we projected four to five weeks,” according to S&P Global’s contemporary report. He also said the United States could “go far longer than that.” His written notification separately acknowledged that the full scope and duration could not yet be known. The short projection came with those qualifications. 9 10

More than six months later, the conflict remains unresolved. The Associated Press reported that U.S. strikes on August 30 ended a month without military action, followed by further strikes and Iranian retaliation on September 1. The war has included pauses in fighting, but those pauses have not produced a lasting end. 11

For household fuel bills, the connection runs through the oil market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration identifies crude oil as the largest component of gasoline prices. Its August outlook said restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were reducing global inventories and keeping oil prices elevated. Refining, taxes, distribution and marketing also affect the pump price. These sources do not assign every cent of the increase to one president or one policy. 13 14

Public expectations have shifted. In an August 21 to 24 Reuters/Ipsos poll, 83% expected U.S. military involvement to last an extended period, compared with 60% in early March. Only 12% expected it to end within weeks. That measures declining expectations of a quick end; it does not establish what intelligence Trump reviewed or which warnings he received. The public documents reviewed for this article do not answer those planning questions. 12

On July 23, the House passed a resolution directing removal of U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran, 214 to 208. The official roll call records 207 Republicans against it and four in favor. All 210 voting Democrats supported it; one independent opposed it. Fitzpatrick and Massie joined Warren Davidson and Tom Barrett as the four Republican supporters. 15 17

The Senate that day rejected a motion to advance a separate withdrawal measure, 47 to 49. Forty-eight Republicans and Democrat John Fetterman voted against advancing it. Susan Collins, R-Maine, joined the other voting Democrats and two independents in support. Four Republicans did not vote. This was a vote on bringing the measure out of committee, not final passage. 16

The measures also differed legally. Roll Call described the House’s concurrent resolution as nonbinding and the Senate’s joint resolution as a route to a binding measure if enacted. Reporting only that the House voted to end the war would leave out that limit. 17

The disagreement is explicit. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., called the war a “strategic blunder on a massive scale,” Roll Call reported. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., opposed the Senate measure because he argued it would require an immediate withdrawal he considered unreasonable. Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., said the repeated votes were also intended to hold lawmakers accountable for their response to the war. These are the lawmakers’ stated positions. 17

Trump’s Venezuelan oil announcement addresses a different time horizon. An August 31 White House fact sheet described access to 65 billion barrels of reserves across 17 fields and plans for up to $100 billion in infrastructure investment. Those figures describe the administration’s agreement and proposed development. They are not a count of additional barrels arriving at U.S. refineries today. 18

Venezuela is already producing oil. Reuters reported output of about 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels a day. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the new arrangements could more than double production over the next few years. 19

Venezuela’s heavy crude and worn infrastructure create development challenges documented by EIA. Its report also records oil shipments to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries resuming in 2023. Expanding production and refining oil already produced are different tasks. 20

There are also measures aimed at relief soon. The Environmental Protection Agency allowed an earlier shift away from summer gasoline requirements beginning September 1, saying it would increase supply. Wright predicted lower U.S. gasoline prices in the coming weeks as refinery rules eased, according to Reuters. That is an official forecast, not a verified saving at the pump. 19 21

EIA’s August forecast projected national regular gasoline averages of $3.78 for 2026 and $3.29 for 2027. Those are annual averages, conditional on its oil-market assumptions. The forecast was completed August 6, before the latest renewed fighting. It cannot promise when your local station will charge less. 14

For readers managing a tight budget, the question is practical: when will the promised relief show up in the next bill? The figures, votes and forecasts in this record provide ways to check that promise as events develop.

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Sources

1. AAA, national average gasoline prices. September 2, 2026 snapshot.
2. Reuters/Ipsos, August 28 to 31 poll topline. August 31, 2026.
3. USAGov, congressional and midterm elections. Updated February 12, 2026.
4. USTR, Section 301 forced-labor tariff action. July 23, 2026.
5. New York Fed, The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices. August 2026.
6. Federal Reserve, Paying More and Buying Less. Revised August 2026; page updated August 31.
7. Supreme Court, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. February 20, 2026.
8. ABC News, House vote on Canada tariffs. February 11, 2026.
9. Donald Trump, War Powers notification to Congress. March 2, 2026.
10. S&P Global, Trump’s initial public war timetable. March 2, 2026.
11. Associated Press, renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, via WPLG Local 10. September 1, 2026; accessed September 2.
12. Reuters/Ipsos, expectations for military involvement in Iran. August 24, 2026.
13. EIA, factors affecting gasoline prices. Structural reference; accessed September 2, 2026.
14. EIA, August Short-Term Energy Outlook. Released August 11, 2026; forecast completed August 6.
15. House Clerk, roll call 282 on H. Con. Res. 89. July 23, 2026.
16. U.S. Senate, roll call 207 on S.J. Res. 180. July 23, 2026.
17. Roll Call, Congress splits on war-powers votes. July 23, 2026.
18. White House, Venezuelan oil agreement fact sheet. August 31, 2026.
19. Reuters, Chris Wright on Venezuelan production and gasoline. Published September 2, 2026; remarks September 1.
20. EIA, Venezuela country analysis. February 8, 2024.
21. EPA, temporary gasoline fuel waiver. August 20, 2026; begins September 1.
22. Reuters, Trump considers returning DOGE savings. February 19, 2025 remarks; updated February 20 UTC.
23. FactCheck.org, Trump’s tariff-dividend proposal. November 14, 2025.
24. FinanceBuzz, status of the proposed $2,000 payment. Updated August 20, 2026.
25. Treasury and IRS, military housing dividend payments. January 16, 2026.

Method and Living Record: This article uses public records, original economic research, polling and attributed reporting available September 2, 2026. Dollar examples use AAA’s unrounded national averages and assumed fuel purchases. The cost-of-living poll surveyed 1,167 adults; the war-expectations poll surveyed 1,215. Each reports a full-sample margin of error of about 2.9 percentage points. The Republican cost-of-living subgroup included 318 respondents, with a margin of about 5.6 points. Forecasts and officials’ arguments are identified as such. New evidence and verified corrections will be dated and explained.

Artificial intelligence was used to assist with research organization, drafting, editing and verification. AI-generated material was not treated as evidence. Factual claims were checked against identifiable sources before publication.

Roberto Zapatero (IABY) remains responsible for the reporting, writing, sourcing, editorial judgment and final published text. AI assistance does not replace source records, human review, principal article writing or independent verification.

Copyright: © 2026 Roberto Zapatero / Is America Better Yet? All rights reserved.

How are fuel costs affecting your household or business? If you find an error or a public record that changes this account, identify the passage and share the source. Keep the discussion civil and grounded in evidence.

Thank you to the people who support IABY’s research, sourcing, fact-checking and technical work, and to readers who help us test the record.

Roberto Zapatero
Independent Forensic Investigative Journalist
Is America Better Yet?

I write for you,

— Roberto

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